Improving predictions of sea level rise under climate change, through modelling of the Pliocene Antarctic ice sheet

Natural and Biological Hazards

KCL

UCL

Sea level change (SLC) is one of the most significant hazards associated with climate change. The largest and most uncertain contribution to SLC in the coming centuries is melting from the Antarctic ice sheet (AIS). To characterise this uncertainty requires robust probabilistic simulations of the AIS under climate change.

This study will use numerical ice sheet modelling (BISICLES) and statistical modelling (Gaussian Process Emulation (GPE)) to project AIS mass loss over to 2300. It will use an ‘ensemble’ approach sample uncertainty in factors governing AIS dynamics and generate probabilistic projections of its contribution to SLC.

To evaluate the success of BISICLES under warm climate conditions, the ice sheet will be simulated for a past period with atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations similar to present (~350-400 ppm) but higher global mean temperatures (~3-4 oC above preindustrial) and much higher sea levels (10-30m above modern): the mid-Pliocene warm
period (mPWP), around 3Ma.

These will be compared with reconstructions of palaeo-sea level to identify which model configurations most realistically simulate the AIS- and should be given greatest weight in the future projections. By using this approach, the project proposed here will provide more robust probabilistic projections of the multi-centennial AIS contribution to SLC.

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