Using Palaeofire response models to assess the role of fire in a future warmer world
Understanding fire dynamic in a warmer world is of paramount importance to tackle future global environmental challenges. The REP’s objective is to apply quantitative analysis on lake sediment data to identify the minimum adequate response model (linear, GLM or GAM) that best describes fire responses to climate variability at the multi-decadal/centennial time scales. Statistical testing based on model fit will be performed using R and CANOCO software. The obtained response models will be used to evaluate 1) optimum conditions for burning and thresholds for fuel availability; 2) future projections considering two different IPCC scenarios (RCP 2.6 and 8.5). Multiproxy data (charcoal, pollen, T reconstructions) are available from ongoing collaborations within the Global Paleofire Working Group and the Wildfire Research Centre. The REP also includes a full week of laboratory analyses on sediment charcoal, and a field survey to Diss Mere for spatial charcoal calibrations to support ongoing palaeofire reconstructions.