The Italian Apennines have a long history of damaging earthquakes, including the 2009 L’Aquila Earthquake. A strain-rate map of the Apennines has been calculated from field measurements along fault scarps (Faure Walker et al., 2010, 2012). Cowie et al. (2013) quantified the relationship between strain-rates and topography across the Apennines and explained the correlation by relating the deformation at the surface with that at depths where earthquakes nucleate.
This project is to model stress across the Apennines using long-term strain-rates and their relationship to topography and Coulomb stress transfers using published historical shaking records and palaeoseismic records supplemented by their own fieldwork.
The results will be used to investigate how variability in the palaeosesmic records relate to the complexity of the fault map, deformations rates and the dynamic stress map calculated in order to infer temporal and spatial distributions of seismic hazard.